Addendum to: Neighbors Ohio and Michigan are moving further apart in politics — differences in ballot access may explain why
Authors’ note: David J. Jackson and Dominic D. Wells co-authored the following, which is an extension of an article we published in The Conversation. What follows will make a lot more sense if you read that first.
Competitive electoral districts have also been shown to lead to increased voter turnout, and we believe the increased turnout in Michigan contributed to voters’ demographic and political divergence from those in Ohio. The populations of the states remain very similar, but their electorates have changed because of the reasons described above, as well as from redistricting. This is because, in 2018 Michigan voters approved the creation of an independent citizens’ redistricting commission to draw fair district boundaries, while Ohio has a bipartisan redistricting commission that leaves drawing the lines up to elected officials with partisan interests. The Ohio Supreme Court rejected the uncompetitive, gerrymandered district maps in Ohio multiple times, but ultimately the unconstitutional maps were used to elect representatives. So while Michigan voters cast ballots in districts with boundary lines drawn without political influence, many Ohioans did not. Further research could demonstrate if Michigan’s competitive maps and Ohio’s gerrymandered maps contributed to the increased size and diversity of Michigan’s electorate compared with Ohio’s.
Research also shows that state parties matter for recruiting quality candidates for office. With only one Democrat among the statewide elected legislative and executive officials, five Democratic US House members out of 15, and tiny caucuses in both houses of the state legislature, the Ohio Democratic Party does not have many quality candidates to call on to compete for state-wide office.
And some Ohio Democrats, including Tim Ryan, believed national Democrats abandoned the former Democratic Congressman during his 2022 bid for U.S. Senate. Meanwhile, Ohio Republicans had a deep bench of quality candidates from within the state, and were able to recruit quality celebrity candidates with Ohio roots, such as author and venture capitalist J.D. Vance, who defeated Ryan. Meanwhile, in Michigan the Democratic Party is strong and has a deep bench of quality candidates, as evidenced by the long list of viable potential nominees to replace retiring U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow.
The political divergence between Michigan and Ohio is a product of changes in the states such as voting laws, redistricting policies, ballot issues, and party strength that shape the electorates’ composition and behavior. Changes in these factors could push voters in either state to move in the direction of a party different than they favored in the past. This also means it may be too early to write off Ohio as a competitive state, because if changes similar to what happened in Michigan happen there, we could see different electoral outcomes in the future.
David J. Jackson is Professor of Political Science at Bowling Green State University in Ohio. His major research interest is the interactive relationship between politics and culture. He is the author of the book Entertainment and Politics: The Influence of Pop Culture on Young Adult Political Socialization, 2nd Revised Edition (Peter Lang Publishing, 2009), as well as scholarly articles in such journals as Political Research Quarterly, Polish American Studies, International Journal of Press/Politics, and Journal of Political Marketing. In 2007–2008 he was a Fulbright Fellow at the University of Łódź. His book Classrooms and Barrooms: An American in Poland was published in 2009.
Dominic D. Wells is Assistant Professor of Political Science at Bowling Green State University in Ohio. He is the author of From Collective Bargaining to Collective Begging: How Public Employees Win and Lose the Right to Bargain (Temple University Press, 2021). His research has also been published in Risk, Hazards, & Crisis in Public Policy, the Journal of Collective Bargaining in the Academy, and the Journal of Public and Nonprofit Affairs.
