The Union Vote in Ohio in 2024

Unionized workers account for about 12.5% of the workforce in Ohio, and they are an important and Democratic-leaning element of the electorate. For example, in Ohio’s 2022 US Senate election, Democrat Tim Ryan took 56% of the union household vote, while Republican JD Vance won just 43%, and the union vote accounted for 21% of the state’s electorate. How is the union vote looking this year in Ohio?

The Bowling Green State University Democracy and Public Policy Research Network recently conducted a survey of 1,000 likely Ohio voters. The poll found 51% plan to vote for Donald Trump, while 44% support Kamala Harris. Further, 49% plan to vote to reelect Sherrod Brown, while 45% support Republican challenger Bernie Moreno.

These numbers look better for Democrats when examining only union households, defined as one where anyone in it is a union member. According to our results, 14% of likely voters are part of a union household. Forty nine percent of these plan to vote for Donald Trump, while 48% plan to vote for Kamala Harris. In terms of the US Senate race, 57% plan to vote to reelect Sherrod Brown, while 38% plan to vote for Republican challenger Bernie Moreno.

Given the support for Harris from a broad coalition of labor leaders, her potential underperformance among voters from union households in Ohio is worth a closer look.

We should consider the intensity of connection with unions among likely voters. Our survey allowed respondents to place themselves into one of the following categories: they are a member of a union; someone in their household is; both they and someone in the household is; and, not any of these. Among the 6% of likely voters who are themselves union members, Harris draws 55% support and Brown draws 59%. It appears that actually being a union member rather than just living with one matters a lot in terms of electoral choice.

It also appears that gender matters. Male union household voters support Trump over Harris by 53% to 41%, which is nearly identical with where non-union household men stand (55% to 40%). Fifty-six percent of women from union households support Kamala Harris, while only 44% support Trump.

Things are a little better for Sherrod Brown. Fifty-five percent of men from union households support him, while only 44% of non-union men do. Sixty percent of women who live in union households support Brown, while 50% of non-union household women do.

We should be careful reading too much into these breakdowns, because sub-sample sizes get smaller and smaller the more granular the analysis. But the evidence suggests that the sampled male union household voters in Ohio are not supporting Kamala Harris for President, while they are supporting Sherrod Brown for Senate.

Another broad issue worth considering is the unevenness with union endorsements of the Democratic presidential nominee this year. For example while the AFL-CIO, National Education Association, Service Employees International Union, American Federation of Teachers, and many more have endorsed Kamala Harris, the media has focused much attention on a couple of unions that did not endorse anyone in this year’s election, such as the Teamsters and International Association of Fire Fighters. The attention paid to these non-endorsements may generate uncertainty among union members about who the best candidate for labor might be.

Members of union households are as complex as any other voters. Just because their union leadership supports a candidate doesn’t mean they are going to follow along. Other aspects of identity and policy preference influence their vote, especially those who are only members of a union household and not union members themselves. The less than stellar numbers presented here should be worrying for Ohio Democrats, however, because without the strong support of such a key constituency their time in the political wilderness could very well continue. Also, without Senator Sherrod Brown, Democratic control of the Senate is unlikely. While Ohio may not be a swing state in presidential politics, it matters a lot for control of the Senate, and union voters will help determine the winner.